HVAC Replacement Opportunity Calculator
Most HVAC companies sit on six figures of replacement revenue without knowing it: roughly a third of US systems are 10+ years old, and their owners are already in your customer list. This free calculator estimates how much replacement work is hiding in yours, from three numbers you already know.
180 customers likely running aging equipment
$1,260,000 of eventual replacement work sitting in your list
$49,000
realistic 12-month replacement revenue if you market to them, at your 4% win rate
Estimates only — every list is different. Not on Jobber? Email a customer CSV to support@toverra.com and we'll run the numbers on your real data, free.
Where these numbers come from
Residential furnaces, ACs and heat pumps last roughly 10-20 years, so at any moment a large share of any customer list is running equipment in its replacement window. The calculator multiplies your list size by your aged-system share to size the pool, then applies your average installed ticket and a conservative win rate. The one number it can't know is which customers those are — that's what your job history holds, and what Toverra extracts from Jobber automatically.
Frequently asked questions
How much replacement revenue does a typical HVAC customer list hold?
A rough rule of thumb: about a third of US residential HVAC systems are 10+ years old. On a 600-customer list with a $7,000 average replacement ticket, that is roughly $1.2M of eventual replacement work, and winning just 4% of those aged systems in a year is around $50,000 of revenue.
Why market replacements to existing customers instead of buying leads?
Your existing customers already know and trust you, their equipment age is in your job history, and reaching them costs nothing but the message. Purchased replacement leads are shared, price-shopped, and routinely cost $50-300 each before you win a single job.
How do I find out which of my customers actually have aging equipment?
If your job history lives in Jobber, Toverra reads it (read-only), extracts equipment and install dates, and ranks your customers by how close each system is to replacement. If you're not on Jobber, you can email us a customer CSV and we'll run a free audit.
Is this calculator's estimate reliable?
It's a planning estimate, not a promise. The share of aged systems, your average ticket, and your win rate vary by market and season. The defaults are conservative industry rules of thumb; put in your own numbers, and treat the output as the size of the prize, not a forecast.